The real estate market of Dubai stands at a pivotal crossroads of record demand in 2026, with growing supply pipelines and surging price trends. After consecutive years of groundbreaking transactions and rapid capital growth, the industry is transforming into a more performance-driven stage.
Multiple factors like mega-infrastructure expansion, international capital movement, and rising population, however, are playing an integral role in shaping a robust property market on the global stage. This evolving trend has also led to consistent fortification of transparent regulations, recalibration of launches by developers, and portfolio diversification among developers.
This blog dives deep into Dubai’s 2026 property ecosystem and explores the current market analysis and anticipated trends.
Market Performance Overview
Dubai’s property market performance in 2025 proved the continuation of record momentum, indicating entrance in 2026 after closing a historic transaction year.
1. Transaction Value Expansion
Dubai closed its staggering 2025 with property transactions surpassing 686.8 billion AED near to 917 billion AED. This reflects a sustained double-digit expansion catalyzed by off-plan inventory and foreign investment. Moreover, a transaction value of this scale has also reinforced the city’s position among the most liquid real estate markets across the globe.
2. A Historic Opening to 2026
Dubai hits the ground running with a record of AED 107.96 billion in January 2026 alone. In addition to twofold expansion from AED 57.89 billion, this first month also reflected buyer’s shift toward luxury and premium residential assets.
3. Sales Volume Stability
After closing the year with 215,700 transactions, the city featured a blistering start to 2026 with approximately 16,858 volumes testifying to year-on-year resilience. This marked a 20.38 percent growth from 14,003 transactions reported in the same month last year, whereas a 17.27% year-on-year surge has been recorded.
These demonstrative peaks indicate that Dubai is transitioning from volume-led growth to value-led expansion, which is a benchmark of maturing property markets worldwide.
Dubai Supply Pipeline & Residential Delivery in 2026
The growth in supply pipeline remains a major concern due to unprecedented demand and population surge in Dubai’s 2026. Khaleej Times has recently unfolded figures where residential inventory growth in Dubai is as follow:
- The total housing stock reached 935,000 units by the end of 2025.
- An approximate volume of 46,700 units were delivered the same year.
- 2026 anticipates delivery of more 55,000 units.
Residential Delivery Forecasts 2026-2030
- A number of 75,000 residential units are predicted to be delivered in 2027.
- More than 400,000 homes are undergoing planning or construction stages between 2026 and 2030’s longer-term horizon.
The supply inventory, however, historically faces delays up to 30 to 40 percent compared to the predicted delivery. The delays are typically caused by constraints in the supply chain and capacity of the contractor.
| Year | Forecasted Handovers | Indications |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 46,700 | Robust post-pandemic demand |
| 2026 | 55,000 | Acceleration in supply phase |
| 2027 | 75,000 | Peak pipeline period |
This shows market supply is rising but staggered deliveries reduce oversupply shocks.
Population Expansion as the Key Demand Engine
The quick absorption of new inventory is primarily due to unstoppable growth in Dubai’s demography ratio, which is mainly fueled by:
- Remote workforce influx
- Corporate relocations
- Entrepreneur migration
- Golden visa programs
1. Population Growth Figures 2025-2026
- The city welcomed more than 208,000 new residents in the past year.
- An annual growth of 5.2% has been recorded.
These figures exceeded the trajectory outlined under the 2040 Urban Vision and demonstrated an exceptional demand for 50 thousand units annually. Analysts see the 2026 pipeline alone equal to 2.4 to 3.2 years of supply with demand fundamentals remaining structurally strong.
2. Housing Composition and Segment Performance
The supply imbalance between apartments and villas in existing stock and future supply demonstrates advantageous boons for both segments in Dubai. The market composition based on current stock features:
- 80 percent of apartments
- 20 percent of villas and townhouses
Apartments will account for 86 percent of upcoming or future supply pipeline, driving price divergence as well as contrast in performance like:
- Demand for family houses remains strong due to growing inflow of high-net-worth individuals and expats.
- Villa and townhouse properties are quickly absorbing due to limited supply.
- The supply constraint is leading to accelerating prices of villas and townhouses.
Capital Appreciation & Price Trends in 2025-2026
Global consultancy reports by Cushman & Wakefield found a tremendous 13% YoY increase in overall residential prices in Dubai’s 2025 year. Reports further indicate that this growth cycle extended to 22 consecutive quarters, demonstrating the market's transformation towards stabilization after record gains of 18% in 2024 and 22% in 2023.
1. 2026 Forecast Momentum
Forecasts by Mitchell’s Commercial Realty show a moderation in price growth up to 5 to 8 percent after a staggering record increase in previous years. This moderation pushes the market toward a more sustainable growth rather than over-heating or reversing.
2. Differentiation in Price Trends
In 2026, pricing trends are now predominantly shaped by:
- Quality of the residential product
- Location
- Size of the unit
Furthermore, family-friendly communities in Dubai along with prime districts are expected to demonstrate resilience despite growth moderation in heavily stocked apartment markets.
Off-Plan Market Dominance in Dubai
Dubai’s transaction landscape is undeniably led by off-plan properties due to:
- Competitive pre-completion prices
- Staggered payment options
- Post-handover schemes
- Capital appreciation during construction
Key Off-Plan Sales Figures
- More than 72% of total sales in 2025 was dominated by off-plan units in Dubai, reflecting a significant 30% YoY increase.
- Around 71.3% of total sales volume was occupied by the off-plan segment in January 2026.
- January 2026 alone reported AED 39.33 billion of off-plan sales, generated from over 11,229 transactions.
Secondary Market Performance in Dubai
Besides off-plan dominance, the secondary market maintained its strength by outpacing previous figures.
Key Secondary Sales Figures
- Secondary market sales in 2025 saw a modest surge of around 8 percent.
- Around 28.7 percent of sales activity in January 2026 was occupied by secondary market transactions.
- Approximately 15.86 billion AED generated from January 2026’s 4,527 transactions.
Factors behind Constrained Activity
The secondary market transaction activity was limited due to:
- Mortgage rate sensitivity
- Bid-ask valuation gaps
- Seller price expectations
However, well-established and prime communities still command high resale prices.
Off-Plan Vs. Secondary Market Price Trends
| Segment | Villas (AED/sq. ft.) | Apartments (AED/sq. ft.) | Townhouses (AED/sq. ft.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off-Plan | 2,310 | 2,071 | 1,402 |
| Secondary | 2,442 | 1,775 | 1,496 |
According to latest January 2026 reports:
- Overall residential sales price revolved around AED 1,924 psf.
- A slight dip of 0.26 percent has been reported based on month-on-month analysis compared with December 2025.
Top Performing Communities in 2026
The January 2026 record transactions has lined up best neighborhoods in Dubai with highest sales volume, including:
| Neighborhood | Total Sales Volumes (Jan 2026) | Avg. Price (AED/sq. ft) | Market Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Damac Islands 2 | 1,081 | 1,307 | Ultra-Luxury, Waterfront, & Nature-Inspired |
| Jumeirah Village Circle | 989 | 1,459 | Mid-market demand |
| Dubai South | 899 | 1,521 | Affordable growth zone |
| Dubai Islands | 644 | 2,615 | Affordable luxury waterfront destination |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 601 | 2,610 | Luxury master community |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 436 | 2,598 | Family-oriented hub |
| Dubai Maritime City | 344 | 3,107 | Ultra-luxury waterfront node |
| The Oasis | 335 | 2,064 | Secure, resort-style supply |
| Grand Polo Club & Resort | 270 | 1,849 | Ultimate private living |
Luxury & Ultra-Prime Market Expansion
The luxury segment in Dubai continued its global dominance with record-transactions in 2025 and growing momentum in 2026.
- Around 500 houses exchanged hands in sales deals in 2025.
- Around 990 homes of AED 10+ million accounted for transactions in January 2026.
- Leading communities for ultra-luxury properties include La Mer, Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah 2, Palm Jebel Ali, and upscale towers in Business Bay.
Knight Frank reported that the ultra-luxury market in Dubai is now in the hands of graceful end-users such as business owners, entrepreneurs, and global elite families.
Global elite families, entrepreneurs, and business owners establishing primary residence in Dubai. That shift makes luxury sales less volatile and more stable long-term. It also aligns with Dubai’s rise in soft power rankings — now among the top 10 globally, bolstering investor trust.
Dubai Commercial Market 2026
In addition to record sales across different segments of the residential market in Dubai, the city reported exceptional values and volumes in the commercial segment as well.
- Around 1,446 commercial transactions reported in Jan 2026 compared to 917 transactions in Jan 2025.
- Total sales value generated by Dubai’s commercial segment is estimated around AED 17.06 billion in contrast to 9.34 billion AED in Jan 2025.
- The segment also saw a MoM growth from 15.90 billion AED worth of sales generated from 1,262 transactions in December 2025.
| Commercial Asset | Total Sales Value (AED) | Total Volume | Sales Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Office | 3,274,310,136 | 679 | 19.19% |
| Land | 10,823,780,217 | 243 | 63.45% |
| Hotel Apartments | 660,064,739 | 208 | 3.87% |
| Retail | 673,488,608 | 139 | 3.95% |
| Whole Building | 1,180,920,419 | 32 | 6.92% |
| Others | 447,237,579 | 145 | 2.62% |
Closing In
Dubai’s real estate market in 2026 mirrors a steady evolution, thanks to historic figures of transaction values and off-plan dominance in buyer activity. Moreover, population expansion continues a rapid absorption of supply, which leads to lower risk of oversupply.
However, amidst the expansion of delivery pipelines and construction delays, price growth is moderating. While the apartment segment accounts for most supplies, luxury assets and villas are continually outperforming in price appreciation and rapid transactions.
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